With the hurricane season a little over a month away (the season will officially begin on June 1st and end on November 30th), it is time for the pre-season forecast from various groups. As Texas surfers we are always gearing up for Hurricane season and the potential big storm surf it can bring to our Texas coast (we scored some surf during Tropical Storm Don last year). While these early forecasts may not always be accurate, they can give us an idea for the hurricane surf we may score later this year.
The Weather Channel has released their 2012 Hurricane Season Forecast for the Atlantic, and it looks like 2012 will be a below average Hurricane Season in Texas and the Alantic in 2012. Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford said “The combination of much cooler North Atlantic ocean temperatures and a trend towards El Nino conditions suggest a notable reduction in activity. There is still uncertainty regarding the development of El Nino, which will impact future forecast updates. If the chances of El Nino development increase, our forecast numbers will likely go down even further in future updates“.
The 2012 hurricane forecast includes 11 Total storms predicted, with 6 hurricanes, and of those 2 are predicted to be Category 3 or higher. These numbers are below the long term average based on the last 16 years of data, where there have been an average of 15 total storms per season, 8 hurricanes, and 4 category 3 or higher. We will have to wait and see what kind of hurricane surf this brings to Texas, but we are hoping we will get some hurricane surf in Texas during 2012!
The names are always an interesting facet of the hurricane season, and this year’s list will be returning from the 2006 season, and the names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2018 season. In order for a hurricane to be retired it must have had a major impact and is a formal request that is made to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Here are this year’s names:
For more information including safety precautions you can view the full article from The Weather Channel here.